Lebanon, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

387
FXUS61 KGYX 010849
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
349 AM EST Sat Feb 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light snow comes to an end this morning as low pressure moves
away from the area. Very cold air arrives by this evening as
high pressure builds into New England. The high moves away on
Sunday, with the next weak system set to arrive late Sunday and
Sunday night with more light snow accumulation. The storm track
looks to remain active through the week with more chances for
precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Snow gradually ends from the mountains to the coastline through
the early morning hours, with the back edge of the system
expected to move offshore soon after sunrise. A few light
lingering snow showers may last through the mid morning across
the Seacoast of New Hampshire. Soon after the snow comes to an
end, mainly sunny skies are expected to return and continue
through the afternoon hours.

Colder air moves in behind the system during the daytime today.
Across northern areas, temperatures steadily fall through the
day with teens in the morning, single digits for the afternoon,
and below zero by the early evening hours. South the mountains
temperatures mainly hold in the mid to upper 20s into the early
afternoon, and then fall through the afternoon hours. These
falling temps will accompany a gusty north-northwesterly wind,
with gusts of 25-30 mph for much of the day. The winds and
falling temperatures will combine to bring wind chills that
likely become dangerously cold by the evening hours across
northern areas, the mountains, and foothills.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
The evening hours will be cold and breezy, sending wind chill
values plunging into the negative 20s and 30s across northern
locations. Across the north, an extreme cold warning has been
issued, and a cold weather advisory has been issued for the
foothills given the expected conditions. The wind then
dissipates by midnight, but for most of the evening a northerly
breeze will combine with temps falling into the negative teens
to produce dangerous wind chills. South of the mountains wind
chills are expected to be in the negative teens through the
evening.

After midnight winds ease, but temperatures continue to fall.
High pressure moves eastward and will be centered across
northern New England by daybreak. With calm winds, clear skies,
and a fresh snowpack, nearly ideal radiational cooling
conditions are expected. Northern valleys likely see the
coldest readings, with temperatures forecast to drop into the
mid negative 20s by daybreak. Other sheltered valleys are
expected to drop into the negative teens, with mainly negative
single digits elsewhere. With temperatures this low, there is
likely to still be some fine tuning on the forecast low temps,
as a slight breeze could make for a 20 degree temp swing in any
location.

Clouds begin to increase by sunrise tomorrow ahead of our next
storm system. Filtered sunshine is expected through the morning,
but then the clouds generally thicken through the daytime.
These clouds limit our warming potential on the heels of a very
cold morning. Highs are expected to primarily remain in the
teens to mid 20s across the area. By late in the day a few snow
showers may begin to reach into western New Hampshire as the
system approaches. Additionally, winds turn more southerly by
late in the day and begin to increase. With a deep cold airmass
in place, some ocean effect snow showers are possible into the
MidCoast and parts of Central Maine tomorrow afternoon on this
southerly wind.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
05Z Saturday Long Term Forecast Update... Latest deterministic
and ensemble based guidance continues to be in overall good
agreement for a weak area of low pressure to bring another
period of accumulating snowfall on Sunday night with several
inches possible. Mainly dry weather looks to follow behind this
system until we approach Thursday night/Friday when another
round of wintry precipitation will be possible. Overall, PoPs
increased for both of these systems given the confidence level
at this time range.

Previously...
Key Message: Temps in the extended are still expected to be a
rollercoaster of above normal at times and below normal at times
and not so much in between. Precip chances will also be above
normal thru the extended...with at least two maybe as much as
three chances for accumulation.

Impacts: Primary hazard will be wintry precip. Sun night into
Mon some light snow is likely across the area. This will linger
into the Mon morning commute. Another chance of snow and mix
will arrive towards the middle of the week.

Forecast Details: High pressure will be departing Sun allowing
clouds and eventually precip to invade from the southwest by
evening. Ensemble guidance is in fairly strong agreement that
this event will be both light and primarily all snow. QPF is
generally a quarter inch or less. At this time that sort puts
the high end goalpost around 4 inches of snow...but there
remains some risk on the southern end of a mix depending on
storm track. I have once again opted for the cooler
guidance...where cold air damming hangs on longer than currently
modeled. Some freezing rain is possible mainly across southern
NH.

Colder air will filter in behind this system followed by another
cold front Mon night into Tue. Some gusty winds will result
during the day as that colder air advects in.

There is still a very strong ensemble signal mid to late week
for a higher QPF storm...generally half inch or more liquid.
This storm has more room for track errors west than previous
events...so snowfall has more spread. We could see a range from
mostly rain like the GEFS to mostly snow like the GEPS. But
overall ensemble guidance suggests snow is most likely from the
Lakes Region NH and points northeast...which is pretty standard
climatology for cold air damming. I am fine with the higher NBM
PoP despite the long lead time given the strong signal.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...Lingering IFR conditions improve to VFR this
morning as the snow moves out of the area. VFR continue through
tomorrow, then some light snow showers are possible at LEB, HIE,
AUG, and RKD tomorrow afternoon.

Long Term...Precip will move in during the evening on Sunday
and areas of IFR or lower are expected to develop in low CIGs
and snow. Conditions will improve around midday Mon....though
some MVFR CIGs may linger in the mtns around HIE. That will
continue into the middle of the week. Some surface gusts Mon and
Tue afternoons may approach 25 kt or higher.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA conditions continue through the overnight
hours tonight, easing in the bays first after midnight. Falling
temperatures cause freezing spray by this evening and into the
overnight hours. Areas of Arctic sea smoke are possible tomorrow
morning, then a period of fair conditions is expected through
the day tomorrow before southerly winds freshen in the
afternoon.

Long Term...Southerly winds increase Sun night and SCA
conditions are expected at least outside of the bays thru Mon
morning. Wind direction shifts to more west southwest and will
remain gusty thru midweek. Overall SCA conditions will be likely
most days thru the end of the period.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for MEZ007>009.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Sunday for MEZ012>014.
NH...Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for NHZ001-002.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Sunday for NHZ003-004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ150>154.
     Freezing Spray Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Sunday for ANZ150>154.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Clair
SHORT TERM...Clair
LONG TERM...Legro/Tubbs